This analysis is to see if particular demographics are more/less likely to win the season or at least make the final tribal than others. It compares the actual number of winners and finalists of demographic cohorts, i.e. age, gender, and race/ethnicity, to the expected number assuming equal probability.
I also conducted a Bayesian analysis to estimate the bias to understand if the difference between the actual and expected values is meaningful. You can read up on the methodology here. This post will cut to the chase and give you the results.
TL;DR
There’s not a lot of difference between age, gender, and racial groups concerning making the final tribal council. However, there is for winning.
- Older players are less likely to win than younger players
- Some evidence women are less likely to win than men
- No difference between racial groups
I find the first and last point interesting since there is usually a lot of focus on race and little on age but it’s clear from the analysis that age is the bigger factor.
So, who has the best chance of winning Survivor? At the start of the game, white men under 40. At Merge, anyone under 40.
One key consideration here is that this analysis is based on 46 seasons of US Survivor. The first seasons of Survivor are very different from the first seasons of the new era. In the new era, there have been 4 female winners, 4 BIPOC winners, and 1 winner over 40. This may mean there is a trend towards a more balanced competition. It’s worth looking into in another post.
At the start of the game
At the start of a season of Survivor, 16-20 people line up on the beach with a seemingly equal chance of winning a million dollar bucks. As it turns out some have a slighter better chance than others.
Winners
- Players over 40 have a lower chance of winning than those under 40
- Given equal numbers, the probability of winning for those over 40 drops from 50% to 32%.
- Some evidence women are less likely to win
- Evidence that white men are more likely to win than other demographics.
- Some evidence white women are less likely to win than other demographics
- There is no difference between other demographic groups
Finalists
- Some evidence women of colour are less likely to make the final tribal council.
- No difference between other demographic groups
At Merge
The game dynamic changes at the Merge. To make it here players would have had to make strong enough social connections to make it through a few tribal councils (usually, sometimes they don’t attend any tribal councils).
The next set of tables will see if players that make it to this stage of the game have more equal chances of making the final tribal or winning than at the start of the game.
Winners
- Some evidence that those over 40 are less likely to win than those under 40
- Bias is -16% points, only slightly better than at the start of the game.
- Weak evidence that women have a lower chance of winning.
- Bias -5% points
Finalists
- No difference between demographic group with respect to the chances of making the final tribal council
At the final tribal council
Players that have made it to the final tribal council have played a very good game, although some better than others. Some players are considered goats and dragged to the end. My opinion is, if you’ve stayed under the radar, made strong connections with players and made it to the end, you’ve played a good game.
Anyway, is there a difference between demographic groups in the chances of winning when they’re sitting next to each other at the end?
Winners
It seems there is a difference.
- Those over 40 have only a 25% chance of winning rather than equal chances
- Some evidence that white women have a 9% lower chance
- Some evidence that white men have a 10% higher chance
Final thoughts
What’s interesting about this analysis is it highlights that age is the most influential factor for winning Survivor, followed by gender and then race/ethnicity. There’s a lot of focus in the fandom on racial bias, some on gender bias, but not a lot on age biases. From this, it’s undeniably the biggest factor. Older players have a much lower chance of winning.
If you want more info or the data, follow the links.
- {survivoR} package
- The Sanctuary
- Google sheets data
- More of predicting winners of Survivor
